Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Oops! Perhaps that wasn't such a good idea but of course I could be wrong

So far I’m a big goose egg on any of my election predictions in the last three presidential campaigns. Five months ago I was sure by this time that Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic nominee and would be delivering McCain’s mail as she breezed by him in the polls. I’m pretty sure I owe the Misanthrope and/or Tom Watson a dollar for my losing wagers.

I don’t watch convention coverage of either party as a rule since it rarely rises above the WWF level of rhetoric, but Hillary’s speech ran over last night, so while waiting for the local news to come on I took my eye off the most excellent Keith Richards biography that I’m finishing to hear what the one time front runner had to say.

Hillary Clinton, like her or not, is the consummate politician. I happen to like Hillary, at least as much as I can. I wouldn’t vote for her over McCain, but I also didn’t live in fear of her becoming president as I do with He Who Walks on Water. Last night she had her game on and was brilliant. Not for a minute did I think she was at all successful in rallying her “Sisterhood of the Traveling Pantsuits” around the Obama/Tool… OOPS! I mean Obama/Biden ticket. What I saw was an individual who ABSOLUTELY should have been the VP choice. I believe Hillary was genuine in her attempt to unite her party with her speech, but by being as good as she was I firmly believe that any democrat watching that speech, DEEP down in their pie in the sky hearts, KNOW she was the best person for the VP slot, perhaps a better presidential candidate than The Savoir himself. I can picture her brushing by Barack backstage and uttering as she intentionally bumps his shoulder with hers, “Go get’em rookie, they’re all yours” and then turning with an out of sight smirk back to her waiting limo.

If her finishing comments didn’t convince me of this, seeing The Son of Man’s reaction after watching the speech on TV in Bumfuck Montana (and let’s face it, EVERYWHERE in Montana can be called Bumfuck), I just got the strongest feeling from his demeanor that he had just watched a much better politician take his ass to the woodshed. Perhaps all those asshats who convinced him that working with the Clinton Machine would be a pain in the backside he’d just assume not deal with were 110% WRONG. I'm conviced they were. I'm fairly certain had the Water to Wine Master sucked it up and chose Hillary as his VP they’d be right now laughing as they tossed their all but empty except for the ice Big Gulp cups out the car window at a hitchhiking John McCain as they passed his ass on their way to Washington at 100 miles per hour on a desolate Nebraska interstate with thunderstorms approaching and no overpass to hide under anywhere in sight.

Of course as I’ve said, unlike my mad eagle eye college football handicapping skillz, my campaign crystal ball is suffering from cataracts. But with McCain’s numbers rising, it sure looks like Obama’s chances have just been dashed.

That’s as WWF as I can muster. What say you…?

23 Comments:

At 2:12 PM, August 27, 2008, Blogger Dave Cavalier said...

Obama's campaign, which was so impressive and sharp in the primaries, is starting to look clueless and rudderless. His only strength, his rock-star charisma, has been cleverly hung around his neck like an albatross by a re-invigorated McCain campaign. They kind of get it, but then they go and design a big Greek temple set so he can accept his nomination in front of 70,000 people after a rock concert. It's just mind-boggling.

One thing that had my jaw on the floor was Obama's dwindling lead in NY state (now only mid single digits). Now, it would still be a massive long-shot that New York would flip, but if there is any Republican who has a shot, it is McCain, who has always distanced himself from the Christian right nutjob wing of the party (although he has had to sell his soul somewhat in this election to shore up his support. If Obama loses New York's 27 electoral votes, game over. He simply cannot win.

Like I said, a super long shot, but a Dem in this environment should be ahead by nearly 20% in New York and Obama's lead is 7%-8%. Shocking.

 
At 2:13 PM, August 27, 2008, Blogger Dave Cavalier said...

BTW, yes, you owe me a dollar. You and a lot of other folks. I was saying that Hillary will not get the nomination long before the primaries even started.

 
At 2:36 PM, August 27, 2008, OpenID poobomber said...

I say....

There's a town in Montana called Bismarck.

No wait, that's North Dakota. So bumfuck it is!

But seriously, I think this isn't even going to be a close match. Once the big game gets rolling, McCain will lose serious popularity when the oddball Republicans come out of the woodwork and start endorsing him in all sorts of ways he doesn't want.

From what I believe, Obama doesn't have the negative backdrop nor the political stances in the past to make a strong negative campaign about. Sure he's been around long enough to attack, but Hillary's campaign vs. Obama already dealt with the negative issues of Obama's past so now he's got clear sailing ahead of him.

On the other hand, McCain has been out of the limelight relatively speaking for a while, and all sorts of 'fresh' bad stuff will weigh on voters minds these next few months before the election as they resurface.

I think it's going to be a 60-40 split for the Dems this go 'round.

 
At 3:59 PM, August 27, 2008, Blogger Dave Cavalier said...

Poobomber -

Can I have some of what you are smoking?

 
At 4:03 PM, August 27, 2008, Blogger Dave Cavalier said...

Oops. I was thinking of Florida. New York is 31 electoral votes.

 
At 4:34 PM, August 27, 2008, Blogger Tony Alva said...

The lights would go out on Broadway if NY went to McCain, but you point is well taken. There's something happening out there with the Obama stump, panic perhaps? I think Biden was a booboo. He's extraordinarily unlikable. Hillary is unlikable to some, but she's visible and comes with an army of votes. If they wanted to win, they just missed an uncovered receiver waving his arms in the end zone. They'll now have to grind it out and get out of bounds to stop the clock and throw to the middle of the field (sorry, college football starts tomorrow at Georgia Tech and I'm a bit distracted by the thought of dawn 'till midnight games in hi-def all weekend).

Of course while Poobomber's 60-40 thing is hard for me to take seriously, the old vs new bad shit argument has meat on it.

As much as I've tried to stay away from the prognosticators, I find myself eerily jazzed about watching the debates. Barack has not done well off script, and as cantankerous as McCain is, I’m predicting he stomps Obama’s ass.

I’ll go double or nothing on it…

 
At 1:03 AM, August 28, 2008, Blogger Jackson said...

How are the rents in Fantasyland?

 
At 9:39 AM, August 28, 2008, Blogger Tony Alva said...

Jackson, does that mean you're in for a dollar?

 
At 10:53 AM, August 28, 2008, Blogger hazmat said...

Tony: I'll see your dollar and raise you a beer. All debts are supposed to be paid in a bar, anyway.

 
At 4:45 PM, August 28, 2008, Anonymous busbee said...

When did you become a Neo-Con exactly? Blogging politics is tough because you're always wrong to somebody, but this entry is beneath you. Pardon the pun but choosing a candidate shouldn't be a black/white decision based on a speech or a campaign. How you do not factor in the past eight years of crappy politics and shameless, nefarious, religiously-wrapped, arguably CRIMINAL acts by the Republican-controlled White House and Congress into your decision is a mystery from someone so deep-thinking and well-read. Voting McCain is more of the same crap. And the dude is ANCIENT and out-of-touch with anyone under 60. You're my cousin, I love you, but you're just plain wrong here, Alva.

 
At 5:02 PM, August 28, 2008, Blogger Tony Alva said...

Buzz, hate to rip your schedule up like Mr. Hand did to my main man Jeff Spicoli, but while some of those accusations you level against the current admin may very well be true, it certainly isn't enough to throw my vote to an empty suit like BO. He simply has not been in the game long enough and I fear his rookie year(s). I have ALWAYS been a McCain guy. I think he's been the best candidate for the job in each election he's run in and my blog history should support that. I refuse to do the payback thing.
I don't want a guy who fills my optimistic heart with a bunch of catch phrases and jingoism for my president. I don't give a shit if my president is all teddy bear like. I want a guy who is willing to go against the tide and I think JM has a track record of that. I din't think he's going to mess with Roe vs Wade and will do what Bush I did and just make it a onon-issue. I think he's centric on most domestic policy and that's what I am. I don't think JM will waste any time with bullshit constitutional amendment banning gay marrige et al.

Even though he's toughened his stance lately, BO is WEAK on the ME and I can't stand the fact that he went to Europe to stump like he did.

Patching up our cred is important, but your OUR president FIRST mutha fucka.

Like I said in my post, I would have felt A LOT better about Hillary.

 
At 5:08 PM, August 28, 2008, Anonymous busbee said...

YOU DICK!

 
At 5:24 PM, August 28, 2008, Anonymous busbee said...

Is BO an empty suit? Do we really know the guy well enough to make that comment? Based on what: the MSM you and your peeps regularly bash? That's my point. We don't know what either of them will do as President, however we do know that the head guy matters less than the fucks he surrounds himself with and we're more likely to get the Bush cronies with McCain in office vs. BO, even though McCain and Bush don't fish from the same pond. So I say let's get some new, fresh blood in there and not the same fucking retreads. I want a President who makes me think I'm getting something new, something different than the last jackass, someone who I want to hear speak - not some marbles-in-mouth, elitist, pre-Alzheimer's grayhead who doesn't know how many houses he owns(yes, cheap shot). McCain is a strong presence and has more years in politics - no doubt. But your portrayal of BO is as one-sided as McCain being portrayed as "stronger military guy". Why? Because he was holed up in the Hanoi Hilton decades ago? Bullshit. What does that have to do with being better, more versed in military strategy from the mile-high view a President sees it from? Hasn't so much changed in since then that his "knowledge" is as relevant as the manual for a Sears Build-Your-Own-Home Kit?

As Spicoli said famously: I DON'T KNOW...(but) WE LEFT THIS ENGLAND PLACE BECAUSE IT WAS BOGUS, IF WE DON'T GET SOME COOL RULES OURSELVES, PRONTO, WE'LL JUST BE BOGUS TOO, YAY?

Let's get some cool rules and new ideas. We need them.

 
At 5:26 PM, August 28, 2008, Anonymous busbee said...

Now enough of this topic on your blog, dude. Let's see something everyone wants to read about, like when your bro fell out of the back of the VW bus and my Dad didn't realize it until 1/4 mile down the road!

 
At 7:57 PM, August 28, 2008, Blogger Jackson said...

I'll go with Hazmat's suggestion, a buck and a beer says Obama takes the election.

 
At 9:11 PM, August 28, 2008, Blogger mike said...

Obama said if he wins he is going to put a hoops court inside the White House. That makes me want to vote for him right there. (If I actually cared enough to vote) All joking aside, the kind of guy who wants to run ball on his days off has more in common with me than some guy who probably still roots for the New Orleans Jazz. Sometimes people overlook the simplest things. Both guys are probably capable. I think it comes down to who will represent the people most accurately.

 
At 1:19 PM, August 30, 2008, Blogger Bobby said...

I know you posted this before McCain made his VP choice, and I'm wondering what your reacction is to his selection.
I'm still on the fence between Obama and McCain and change my mind almost daily. I'm easily swayed, but think choosing Palin was a mistake.

 
At 4:22 PM, August 30, 2008, Blogger hazmat said...

I don't know much about her, but a good friend of mine likened her to Dan Quayle.

 
At 6:27 PM, August 30, 2008, Blogger Tony Alva said...

Well, I won't pretend to be all in the know on Palin, but I can say with certainty that she is NOT a Dan Quayle and the Obama camp would be foolish to treat her that way.

I agree with The Misanthrope's early assessment. I also think that everybody has decided who they will vote for EXCEPT disgruntled Hillary voters.

McCain has to do two things: Show these voters he's not Bush (contrary to BO's lie during his speech. McCain voted 21 of 31 on party line), and talk energy independance. Show the world how utterly stupid BO's limits on domestic drilling is and the votes will come.

That and not do something stupid.

Not that it matters all that much to voters, but Palin is certainly a hottie.

 
At 6:42 PM, August 30, 2008, Blogger hazmat said...

Actually, my friend who said that is a Republican. He has no love for Biden either.

 
At 12:59 AM, September 04, 2008, Blogger Jackson said...

So, uh, you must be a tad unsure since you haven't accepted my wager. The offer remains on the table.

 
At 11:41 AM, September 05, 2008, Blogger Tony Alva said...

I'm down Jackson... Even as the underdog, I'll take the bet.

 
At 10:18 AM, September 09, 2008, Anonymous busbee said...

Last word from me on this only because I did some actual non-partisan research after listening to R Phillips' drivel at the NCSU-William and Mary game on Sat. Palin doesn't even rank as a hot milf. She's what a buddy and I termed a "Pittsburgh 8" which means she's attractive relative to her surroundings, be it Alaska or VP nominees. Also, McCain is against drilling in ANWR (http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2008/0831_mccain_palin_sandalow.aspx) which is amazing to me. If you're going to drill, wouldn't it make more sense to do it somewhere remote and make as little environmental impact as possible? Seems like the oceans take a beating - why push it for oil that won't come out for a decade? Oh, and you're STILL a dick!

 

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